Recently, the Customs Information Network released the "2014 Review of the first quarter of China's economic situation and foreign trade situation analysis report <Spring News>" (hereinafter referred to as the report), the report on China's macroeconomic situation first in 2014 in the first quarter for the inventory pointed out that the first quarter of smooth start our economy, GDP growth is maintained at a reasonable range, at the same time we should also see weak growth in the manufacturing sector and weakening domestic demand, such as China's economic growth is still downward pressure.
Meanwhile, the report on China's foreign trade structure of the main features of the first quarter of 2014 in-depth analysis of the global and domestic economic impact of the status quo of China's import and export trade of in-depth research and analysis, analysis of China's import and export trade At the same time negative growth, trade structure also presents new features. Through the favorable and unfavorable factors facing our country at this stage of the analysis of import and export trade, and taking into account the impact of the base effect last year, the report of import and export in 2014 was to maintain the "first low high shock rebound," the judge.
2014 first quarter, China's economy steady start, run remain in a reasonable range
1. GDP growth is maintained at a reasonable range, the industrial added value continuation of "low open" trend
(1) the first quarter of 2014 China's economy start running smoothly, to achieve a quarter of GDP 12.8213 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 7.4%. Sub-industries, the primary industry 777.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; the secondary industry was 5.7587 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%; the tertiary industry was 6.285 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%. From the chain perspective, the first quarter GDP growth of 1.4%.
(2) the first quarter of 2014 over the national scale industrial added value at constant prices grew by 8.7%, growth rate down 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year. Production and marketing of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 97.1 percent rate in the first quarter, down 0.1 percentage points. Above-scale industrial enterprises realized export delivery value of 2.5773 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%.
2, the total national fixed asset investment and retail sales have maintained a good growth momentum
2014 first quarter, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 6.8322 trillion yuan, up 17.6% nominal growth (after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 16.3 percent), the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points lower than in January and February. From the chain speed, the March investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased 1.24%. The total retail sales of social consumer goods 6.2081 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.0%.
3, the consumer price index smooth (CPI) trend mild, the producer price index (PPI) and the purchase price index (PPIRM) year on year decline in the expansion, manufacturing recovery, lack of motivation
(1) in March 2014, the national consumer price index rose 2.4%. January-March average, the national consumer price index rose 2.3% over last year.
Exhibit 1 January 2013 -2014 in March of CPI, PPI and PPIRM trend

    
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
(2) March 2014 China's industrial producer prices (PPI) fell 2.3%; industrial producer price (PPIRM) fell 2.5 percent, compared with February showed a decline of expanding trend.
A quarter of China's manufacturing PMI index 4,2014 located on the critical point in maintaining a steady trend
After the Spring Festival enterprises began to focus on the production and business activities to become more active, pushing PMI rebounded slightly. March 2014 China's manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, edged up 0.1 percentage points from last month, is the first rise since November last year, indicating that China's manufacturing industry is generally stable for the better.
Chart 2 January 2013 -2014 in March the trend of China's PMI

    
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
5, China to attract foreign investment grew steadily, March slight fluctuations, the proportion of foreign investment in the service sector accounts for more than half of the total foreign investment in the country
2014 first quarter, China's actual use of foreign investment 31.55 billion US dollars (equivalent to 194.31 billion yuan), an increase of 5.5% (excluding banking, securities and insurance field data). Among them, the actual use of foreign investment services $ 17.32 billion, an increase of 20.6% in the proportion of the national total of 55.1%.
The same period, South Korea's investment in China $ 1.63 billion, an increase of 162.1%; Japan's investment $ 1.21 billion, down 47.2 percent. America's actual use of foreign investment $ 1.04 billion, down 1.9%. EU foreign capital actually invested $ 1.55 billion, down 24.5 percent.
6, a record quarter, the second highest level of new loans, M2 growth rate down to increase the monetary policy fine-tuning space
In 2014 a quarter of China's broad money (M2) balance of 116.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1% from the previous month and the end of the year low 1.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively, compared to last year dropped by 3.5 percentage points. M2 growth rate dropped one hand by the impact of a higher base last year, the other off-balance sheet financial management, financial and other Internet streaming and the currency conversion is also on M2 growth rate dropped to some extent.
Developed countries continue to show steady recovery trend, emerging economies still face varying degrees of downside risks
The report notes that the first quarter of 2014, developed countries continue to show steady recovery trend, the US, Japan and Europe have delivered a positive economic signals, particularly the European Union, the scope of the economic recovery is growing. Emerging economies face deleveraging and capital outflow pressures, economic downside risks still.
1, developed economies continue to recover, the overall US economic outlook to improve, expand the scope of the EU recovery, steady growth in Japan
Chart 3 2012 2013 United States and Japan GDP trend 
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
2, emerging economies face to resolve the economic downturn and interest rates inhibit capital flight dilemma
Chart 4 2012 2013 GDP trends emerging economies
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In 2014 a quarter of China's import and export growth year on year, "double down", the trade structure presents new features
Year growth rate of China's import and export trade "double down" significantly affect the price of exports in the first quarter 1,2014, but exports of leading indicators show a relatively optimistic future exports
2014 first quarter, the export value of 5.9 trillion yuan, down 3.7 percent over last year. Among them, the export of 3 trillion yuan, down 6.1 percent; import 2.9 trillion yuan, down 1.2 percent;
Chart 5 January 2013 -2014 March monthly contrast to the situation of China's foreign trade
In 2014 a quarter of China's total import and export cargo to maintain growth, import cargo movements consistent with the trade, the more obvious influence on the export price
Chart 6 January 2013 import cargo and trade trend comparison of March -2014
Exhibit 7 January 2013 the export of cargo and trade trend comparison of March -2014
Through the contribution rate analysis, motors, electrical, audio-visual equipment and spare parts trade is a major drag on China's export growth commodities decline, dragged down China's export growth fell by 3.5 percentage points, the impact reached 103.6%; a drag on growth in China's imports more prominent is the motor, electrical equipment and parts commodities, which dragged down the import decreased 4.3 percentage points, the impact has reached 267%.
(B) from trading partners, the EU and Japan rebounded, the US, ASEAN declined slightly, the BRIC countries continue to divide, RTHK decline significantly
Customs Information Network report on trade growth areas that the declining trend in the developed economies of the European Union and Japan turnaround, growth in the first quarter were up 9.4% and 5.4%, an increase 11.2 and 16.1 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year; US and ASEAN over the previous year, although the growth rate has declined, but to maintain the momentum of growth than the overall stability; emerging markets continue to divide, Russia, Brazil and India are still running above average, but Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Kazakhstan fell significantly; sharp decline in Hong Kong and Taiwan in the first quarter, the current period of negative growth in China's foreign trade major market factor.
Meanwhile, in the spring report customs information network, but also choose the EU, the US and Japan, as developed on behalf of ASEAN, BRIC (Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa) as representative of emerging countries and Hong Kong, with the typical sense to me import and export trade focuses on partners.
(C) from the regional situation, the base effect affecting the eastern trade scale transient weakness dragged down the overall data; Midwest fade differentiation trend, the growth rate dropped significantly in central and western developed into the biggest bright spot
  Exhibit 8 regional trade in the first quarter comparison table
Regional and export date export import
Value (billion) YoY (%) value (million) year on year (%) value (million) year on year (%)
In 2014 a quarter of the eastern region -6.4 4170.3 4093.3 8263.6 -3.7 -0.8
Central 639.7 3.4 350.9 288.8 9.5 -1.1
Western Region 755.5 286.6 41.4 34.5 468.8 30.6
In 2013 a quarter of eastern 8577.4 4204.3 12.3 4373.1 15.1 9.4
Central Region 618.7 354.9 16.9 35.1 263.8 -1
Western Region 561.6 202.7 31.9 358.9 51.2 7.5
Exhibit 9 a quarter of the area of bilateral trade situation Comparison Chart
In 2014 a quarter of the first quarter of 2013
Regional export value up (%) regions export value up (%)
(Million) (million)
Eastern European EU 1,056.60 1,165.90 10.4 -3.8
1,055.60 1,045.00 72 1.9 United States, Hong Kong
ASEAN 827.3 0.5 8.5 United States 1,035.80
Japan, ASEAN 823.3 673.7 2.8 9.2
Japan, Hong Kong 651 -37.7 655.4 -10.4
Central European EU 114 117.9 5.1 -3.3
United States United States 72.6 33.3 75.2 3.6
ASEAN ASEAN 60.4 0.3 60.2 56.4
Japan Japan 46.3 30.9 35.4 -14.2
Hong Kong 23.4 38.1 28.9 23.5
Western Region ASEAN ASEAN 164.6 37.9 119.3 57.9
United States 95.3 29.4 74.8 22.4 EU
EU 87 16.3 73.6 27.8 United States
Hong Kong 30.3 75.1 73.7 143.2
Japan Japan 26.9 51.3 17.7 -16.4
(D) the proportion of general trade Yu Wucheng, traditional processing trade shrinking, foreign trade enterprises and gradually increase the capacity for self-development, to optimize the structure of foreign trade
General trade import and maintain good growth, foreign trade enterprises and gradually increase the capacity for self-development. In 2014 a quarter of China's general trade import and export $ 532.8 billion, showing rapid growth, an increase of 9.4%, accounting for 55.2 percent of China's total import and export.
(Five) from commodity analysis, electromechanical and high-tech goods, both imports and exports declined, exports of labor-intensive goods was flat, "two high" exports increase in volume and a drop in price, commodity imports increase in volume and a drop in price, involving the livelihood of agricultural imports to maintain rapid growth
In 2014 a quarter of China's import and export of mechanical and electrical goods $ 467.77 billion, down 6.0%, accounting for 48.4% of the total value of China's imports and exports. Import and export of high-tech goods $ 261.34 billion, a substantial decline of 12.9%, accounting for 27.1 percent of China's total import and export trade. Our mechanical and electrical goods and international competitiveness of high-tech goods is weak, mechanical and electrical goods in the first quarter and net export ratio of high-tech goods (if the index is above 0.7 indicate a relatively strong international competitive advantage) were only 0.2 and 0.08.
Exports, seven categories of labor-intensive goods exports $ 97.06 billion, a slight increase of 0.1%, the proportion of China's total export value of 19.8%. China's traditional labor-intensive products with strong international competitiveness, the net export ratio of 0.8. Among them, the ratio of net exports of furniture, luggage, clothing, footwear and toys product was 0.9. Special attention is required, the domestic severe overcapacity, to promote the "two high" exports have been expanding, showing rapid growth. A quarter of China's "two high" commodity exports 49.169 million tons, an increase of 46.9%.
The import side, a quarter of international commodity prices continue in a downward channel, showing increase in volume of commodity imports drop in price trend. Soybean imports natural rubber, copper ore logs and lumber are more than 20 percent year on year, the average price of imports fell by more than 6%. Other bulk commodities, iron ore imports to maintain a rapid growth of nearly 20%, coal and lignite growth of 5.1%, import price fell by more than 5%. Agricultural imports to maintain rapid growth, imports grew 16.8%.
2014 China Imports will show a "first low to high, shock rebound" situation, in the second quarter year on year growth or over 6%
Customs Information Network report on China's foreign trade in 2014 and the first quarter of factors to predict the trend into the in-depth analysis. Favorable factor is:
1, Macro running smoothly, the policy is expected to deepen reform and stable trading environment
2014 first quarter, China's economy steady start, the GDP growth rate of 7.4%, although the record six quarters to the low, but compared with the first quarter of 2013 fell only slightly by 0.3 percentage points, and higher than in developed countries and emerging economies growth rate of about 2% of the body.
2, tariff adjustments and other measures to promote the healthy development of industry and foreign trade, two-way
National release 2014 Edition "to encourage imports of technologies and products catalog," the expansion of advanced technology, key equipment and spare parts, import scarce resource products to support the development of key industries, imports of discount policy to play the role of structural adjustment and technological innovation. "Catalog" release will be China's industrial structure adjustment and product upgrade and improve the international competitiveness of China's independent innovation capability and has an important role in promoting the product.
3, domestic and foreign trade zone sided afterburner, opening continues to escalate
Since the establishment of Shanghai FTA role in promoting institutional innovation rely on the "pro-reform and opening up," the apparent end of March FTA within six months cumulative new business 7772, one quarter of this year 340 billion yuan of total operating revenue, an increase of 10.5 % complete industrial and commercial tax 16.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32%.
4, developed economies continue to boost global trade growth is expected to pick up
In 2014 the world economy bottoming rebound, most economies, especially in developed economies, the performance will be better than before. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that in 2014 the world economy will grow by 3.9%, compared with the previous forecast increase of 0.3 percentage points; among developed economies slowed significantly increased. World Trade Organization (WTO) World trade growth forecast of 4.7% increase compared with the previous forecast of 0.2 percent, significantly higher than the 2013 level.
The main negative factors focus on the following two points:
1, the traditional competitive advantages weaken, the international market share of face competition from neighboring countries
Highlighting environmental pressures and rising unit costs of production factors have increased the cost of production of foreign trade enterprises, weakened the international competitiveness of their products.
2, from both developed and emerging markets will continue to trade frictions are heating up, can hardly improve the trading environment
On the one hand, the developed countries put forward the "re-industrialization" while competing in the high-end manufacturing and China's increasingly fierce, more and more friction is bound; on the other hand, emerging markets severe devaluation, in order to protect their own industries and companies are tight with subsequent further introduction and take trade restrictive measures. With China has become the world's largest trading nation in goods, but also will become a global trade protectionism "common knowledge."
Based on the above analysis, by the world economic recovery is solid, stable domestic base effect and reduce overall operating factors such as promotion, import and export of the second quarter of 2014 will be negative as positive twist, report the use of Holter-Winter season product model to predict the second quarter of 2014 export growth or over 6%.
Finally, the Customs Information Network report under the new situation of China's import and export trade development gives clear advice 4:
1, the proposed national macro-control policy focus from demand to supply, transformation of economic development and vigorously develop the real economy, establish policy system deregulation and market-oriented reforms to stimulate vitality, reduce market access barriers, reduce the tax burden, reduce financing costs by improving market efficiency factor overall economic competitiveness.
2, and further to promote the deepening of reform and opening to upgrade and accelerate regional integration. Shanghai FTA deepening reform and share the "spillover effect" to accelerate the progress of other FTA approval and regional economic transformation and upgrading in order to stimulate reform and institutional innovation vitality; attention TPP, TTIP trade agreement negotiation process, to enhance our cooperation in the multilateral trading system by deepening the existing cooperation and participation in the FTA mature multilateral cooperation system effectively reduce trade protectionism dispute; perfect Shanghai and Hong Kong through the pilot, to promote open and RMB internationalization process of China's capital markets.
3, in order to "go out" to drive steady growth in exports, imports and exports to achieve coordinated development, optimize the structure of foreign trade pattern. Encourage enterprises to expand export channels, enhance risk awareness and reduce operating costs through overseas factories, to avoid trade barriers.
4, supporting cross-border e-commerce development, fostering export new competitive advantages. Accelerate the reform of cross-border trade ecommerce pace, step by step guide online shopping, purchasing and other difficult to cross-border e-commerce regulation of behavior change, while strengthening safety supervision of imported goods, and promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, fostering export new competitive advantages.
Overall, China's import and export trade in the first quarter of negative growth in 2014 is a temporary phenomenon, as the "pro-trade, steady growth" measures to expand and improve the base effect and fade in the second quarter of 2014, imports and exports as a whole is greater than the negative positive factors . Considering these factors, China is expected to import and export growth in 2014 of about 6% in the second quarter, total imports and exports will reach 1000 to 1100 billion U.S. dollars.